Super El Niño: What You Need to Know About the Looming Climate Event

El Niño is back, and it's shaping up to be a monster. Scientists now say a 'very strong' El Niño event—potentially the most powerful since the 1870s—is the most likely scenario from October 2023 through February 2024. This isn't just another weather pattern; it's a 'super' El Niño that could unleash devastating floods, droughts, and humanitarian crises across the globe. In this Q&A, we break down what this means, why it matters, and how it could affect millions of people. Use the links below to jump to each question.

• What exactly is a 'super' El Niño?
• How likely is a super El Niño by the end of this year?
• Is this going to be the biggest El Niño since the 1870s?
• How does this El Niño compare to the 2015-2016 event?
• What are the main humanitarian impacts of a super El Niño?
• Which regions are most at risk?
• Can we predict the exact effects yet?
• What can be done to prepare for a super El Niño?

What exactly is a 'super' El Niño?

A 'super' El Niño is a term used by climate scientists to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event, typically when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average for several months. This threshold is often reached during the strongest recorded events, such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The current forecast suggests that we may be on track to surpass even those benchmarks, potentially becoming the most powerful since systematic records began in the 1870s. A 'super' El Niño doesn't just happen overnight—it builds over spring and summer, peaking in winter. Its impacts can be global, disrupting rainfall patterns, intensifying storms, and pushing already vulnerable communities into crisis. The term 'super' isn't official, but it captures the extraordinary nature of the event being predicted.

How likely is a super El Niño by the end of this year?

Climate models are now converging on a very high probability that a 'very strong' El Niño will develop by the October-to-February period. According to the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a rapidly increasing probability for a strong event (sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 1.5°C). The chance of a 'super' El Niño—exceeding 2°C—has risen to nearly 1 in 3 in some models, a significant increase from earlier projections. This makes it the most likely scenario: not just a typical El Niño, but a historically extreme one. Meteorologists are watching the Pacific closely because the system is already showing signs of rapid intensification, with warming much faster than in previous developing events.

Is this going to be the biggest El Niño since the 1870s?

Early indicators are alarming. If current trends continue, the 2023-24 El Niño could indeed become the strongest since systematic instrumental records began in the 1870s. Some models suggest that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region (the key monitoring zone) could exceed 2.5°C above average—higher than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 peaks, which were previously the strongest on record. However, it's important to note that forecasting skill beyond a few months is limited. While the probability is rising, we won't know for certain until later in the year. The phrase 'biggest since the 1870s' is based on comparisons with historical data, but each El Niño is unique in its atmospheric response. Even if it doesn't break temperature records, the societal and humanitarian impacts could still be enormous, especially in regions still reeling from the aftermath of La Niña and other climate extremes.

How does this El Niño compare to the 2015-2016 event?

The 2015-16 El Niño was one of the strongest ever observed, causing widespread droughts in Southeast Asia and southern Africa, severe flooding in South America, and coral bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef. The current event is following a similar trajectory but with some key differences. First, ocean heat content is even higher globally now than in 2015, providing more fuel for extreme weather. Second, the transition from La Niña (2020-2023) to El Niño has been unusually rapid, which may amplify the atmospheric teleconnections. Third, many regions—such as the Horn of Africa—are still recovering from multi-year droughts, making them more vulnerable. While the 2015-16 event peaked at roughly 2.6°C above normal in some measurements, this year's event could potentially reach 3.0°C in certain models. However, the 2015 case also set off a cascade of humanitarian emergencies; a stronger event now would almost certainly magnify those risks.

What are the main humanitarian impacts of a super El Niño?

The humanitarian costs of a super El Niño are staggering. In the past, such events have triggered widespread crop failures, leading to food insecurity and famine in vulnerable regions like Ethiopia, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. Flooding in Peru and Ecuador can destroy homes and infrastructure, while Southeast Asia may face both drought and catastrophic fire seasons due to dry conditions in Indonesia. Additionally, El Niño often disrupts health systems—increasing the risk of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, especially in East Africa and South America. The economic toll can reach into the billions, but the human cost is measured in lives lost, displaced communities, and deepened poverty. For 2023-24, the compounding factor of climate change means that baseline temperatures are higher, making heatwaves and wildfires more likely. United Nations agencies are already warning that tens of millions of people could need humanitarian assistance if this El Niño reaches its predicted strength.

Which regions are most at risk?

No region is completely safe, but historical patterns point to several hotspots. In the Pacific, islands like Fiji and Vanuatu face an increased risk of tropical cyclones during an El Niño winter. Across Southeast Asia, Indonesia and the Philippines typically experience below-average rainfall, raising concerns about drought, water shortages, and peatland fires. In the Americas, the U.S. southern tier (California to Florida) often gets more winter storms, while the Amazon basin and northeastern Brazil can suffer severe drought. Africa's Horn and southern regions are particularly vulnerable: Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya may see flooding after years of drought, whereas South Africa and Zimbabwe may face scorching dry conditions. And in the Indian Ocean, India's monsoon can be weakened, affecting agriculture for hundreds of millions of farmers. The interplay of pre-existing vulnerabilities—conflict, weak infrastructure, natural resource depletion—will determine the ultimate humanitarian cost in each area.

Can we predict the exact effects yet?

While climate models are excellent at predicting large-scale patterns, the exact local impacts remain uncertain until the event unfolds. El Niño's influence is not deterministic—it shifts the odds of certain weather outcomes but doesn't guarantee them. For example, a strong El Niño increases the likelihood of a wet winter in Southern California, but a specific storm track can't be forecast months ahead. Similarly, the Indian monsoon deficit is a strong probability, not a certainty. Seasonal forecasts are updated monthly and become more accurate as the event matures. Scientists are also studying new factors like the location of the warmest sea surface temperatures (central vs. eastern Pacific) and the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole. The bottom line: we can anticipate higher risks for many regions, but we should not expect precise predictions. Early warning systems and flexible preparedness plans are essential to manage the wide range of possible outcomes.

What can be done to prepare for a super El Niño?

Preparedness is critical. Governments, humanitarian agencies, and communities can take several actions now. First, strengthen early warning systems by investing in seasonal forecasts and community-based data collection. Second, pre-position emergency supplies—food, water, medicine—in high-risk areas, especially in the Horn of Africa and Pacific Islands. Third, implement drought-resistant farming techniques and improved water storage to cushion agricultural losses. Fourth, launch public health campaigns to combat malaria and dengue before outbreaks occur. Fifth, review and update disaster response plans, including evacuation routes for flood-prone areas. On a global scale, international cooperation is needed for coordinated funding: the UN has already called for $2.5 billion in anticipatory action. Ultimately, the best preparation for a super El Niño is a robust safety net—social protection, insurance, and flexible aid mechanisms that can scale up quickly when the forecasts become reality.